{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"What if the fantastical world of an alien virus that creates superheroes could be dissected through the lens of real-world physics? "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"A new study does just that, merging advanced physics with the imagination of George R. R. Martin, the celebrated fantasy author best known for his A Song of Ice and Fire series, famously adapted into the hit HBO television show Game of Thrones."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Recently published in the American Journal of Physics, Martin and Dr. Ian L. Tregillis—a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and science fiction author—explored the physics of Martin's Wild Cards universe. In this fictional world, an alien virus grants superhuman powers to a fortunate few."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"\"Like any physicist, I started with back-of-the-envelope estimates, but then I went off the deep end,\" Dr. Tregillis said in a statement. \"Being a theoretician, I couldn't help but wonder if a simple underlying model might tidy up the canon.\""}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Science fiction has long served as a fertile playground for scientific thought experiments, offering scenarios to explore theories and concepts in physics, mathematics, and engineering. Martin's Wild Cards series, a shared-world anthology of superhero fiction, provides a unique sandbox for such explorations."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Set in an alternate history of post-World War II United States transformed by an alien virus, the series imagines a pathogen that triggers a \"card turn\" in its hosts, resulting in fatalities, grotesque mutations (\"jokers\"), or extraordinary powers (\"aces\")."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Wild Cards alien virus adheres to a strict statistical distribution: 90% of those infected die, 9% experience mutations, and only 1% emerge with superhuman abilities. Dubbed the \"90:9:1 rule,\" this narrative device becomes a springboard for a deeper dive into statistical modeling, classical mechanics, and dynamical systems."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Dr. Tregillis and Martin used the \"90:9:1 rule's\" high-risk, slim-reward premise to create an elegant mathematical model, applying advanced physics concepts like Lagrangian mechanics and ergodicity. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"\"We translated the abstract problem of Wild Card viral outcomes into a simple, concrete dynamical system,\" Dr. Tregillis explained. \"The time-averaged behavior of this system generates the statistical distribution of outcomes.\" "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"While Martin's Game of Thrones series brought epic fantasy to mainstream audiences, Wild Cards represents his deep dive into speculative science fiction. First published in 1987, the Wild Cards series features a shared-world narrative written by more than 40 authors under Martin's editorial guidance. With dozens of volumes spanning decades, it explores the social, political, and cultural upheaval caused by the introduction of the wild card alien virus."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"While fantastical, the alien virus forms the foundation for a compelling scientific exercise by Dr. Tregillis and Martin. Their collaboration resulted in a model that uses advanced physics to explain the viral dynamics of Wild Cards. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The study begins with a simple but audacious question: How can the seemingly random effects of the wild card alien virus be modeled within the rules of classical physics? "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"To answer this, Dr. Tregillis and Martin designed a framework that treats each infected individual as a system with a \"state vector\" representing their transformation's severity and its mix of mutation (joker traits) versus superhuman abilities (ace traits). This state vector evolves dynamically until the individual's \"card turns,\" permanently locking their fate."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The research applies the \"90:9:1 rule\" as a statistical distribution while introducing a more nuanced consideration of undetectable outcomes. For example, \"crypto-jokers\" and \"crypto-aces\" represent individuals whose transformations are either too subtle to notice or whose powers remain latent. These additions expand the narrative's complexity while providing fertile ground for advanced problem-solving in physics."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"\"A challenge for epidemiologists, and one that would bedevil our hypothetical theoretician, is to establish the true lethality of a pathogen,\" the authors wrote. \"This is complicated by the existence of asymptomatic carriers, who by definition are difficult to identify.\" "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Central to the study is developing a Lagrangian—a mathematical function describing a system's motion—that governs the viral outcomes. This \"Wild Card Lagrangian\" integrates severity, the probability of mutation, and the likelihood of superhuman abilities into a cohesive model."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"One of the study's most innovative aspects is its use of ergodicity, a principle often employed in statistical physics. The researchers argue that the apparent randomness of the virus's effects is actually rooted in deterministic processes. By modeling the virus as a system in dynamic equilibrium, they demonstrate how the 90:9:1 rule emerges naturally from the parameters they set."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The scientific modeling of the Wild Cards universe elevates the series by grounding its fantastical premise in the language of physics. The study moves beyond narrative speculation to ask practical questions: How would a pathogen generate fixed statistical outcomes? What variables govern the balance between \"joker\" traits and \"ace\" abilities? These explorations add a layer of scientific plausibility to the series."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"However, when it came to creating Wild Cards, keeping a focus on being scientifically oriented had never been the main concern, with the emphasis instead primarily being on storytelling."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"“The goal has always been to tell entertaining stories featuring interesting characters in a fun and fascinating world,” Trellis told The Debrief in an email. “After all, the fundamental premise—that a virus could somehow imbue people with physics-defying superpowers—is clearly impossible.”"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Tregillis said that a mutual friend, the late Victor Milán, “who was one of the original members of the Wild Cards consortium, did put a physics-ish gloss on the concept decades ago, in the very first volume of the series.”"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"However, introducing a convincing feeling of scientific validity in fiction often requires more. Tregillis cited the Expanse series by James S. A. Corey, an author who he says has a personal connection to Wild Cards, as an example of science fiction that maintains a convincing degree of scientific authenticity."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"“Building a scientific hypothesis (not to mention translating that into math, the language of physics) requires data,” Tregillis told The Debrief. “But of course, the amount of 'hard data' presented by the Wild Cards canon is very slim -- hypothesis testing rarely makes for good page-turning drama.”"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"“So, at the outset, I faced a severely under-determined problem. It took a bit of thought before I identified a way to think about the problem, a question to ask that was both fruitful and tractable.”"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Overall, Tregillis said that he and Martin had a simpler objective when writing their recent science paper."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"“The goal of our paper is to use this kooky, whimsical scenario to demonstrate that a scientific mindset, perhaps combined with a little math and deductive reasoning, can be a powerful tool for mining insights from even the most vague, seemingly unapproachable, problems.”"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Beyond its narrative appeal, the study serves as a powerful educational tool. Transforming a fictional scenario into a physics problem invites one to engage with advanced topics like multivariate probability distributions, classical mechanics, and dynamical systems. The unconventional premise lowers barriers to entry, making complex concepts more approachable."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Working through the alien virus's \"90:9:1 rule \" requires simplifying assumptions, addressing discontinuities, and refining models—a realistic reflection of the challenges faced by working physicists."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"\"The goal of this case study is to develop a useful pedagogical exercise in exploring an open-ended research question that presents, at first glance, no clear path forward,\" Dr. Tregillis and Martin wrote. \"Being both eclectic and lengthy, this exercise offers a unique way for students to apply their core physics and mathematics education.\" "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Despite its sophistication, the model raises interesting challenges. For example, the authors highlighted a tension between the need for a low infection fatality risk—necessary for societal stability—and the high prevalence of \"aces\" depicted in the series. This discrepancy invites further refinement of the model or even new interpretations of the series' narrative."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The introduction of \"crypto\" outcomes also complicates the model. In real-world epidemiology, asymptomatic carriers of diseases pose similar challenges, as they often go undetected. The parallels between the wild card alien virus and real-world pathogens underscore the study's relevance beyond fiction."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Dr. Tregillis and Martin attempt to bridge the gap between imagination and reality by merging storytelling with scientific rigor. Fans of the Wild Cards series gain a fresh perspective on the fictional universe, while physicists see a creative application of their discipline."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Moreover, the study highlights the power of science fiction as a medium for public engagement. By grounding complex concepts in a familiar narrative, it makes advanced physics accessible to a broader audience."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"This is especially noteworthy in light of a recent large-scale empirical survey on public trust in science. Conducted across 68 countries, the survey revealed that 83% of participants wanted scientists to \"invest more effort into communicating about science with the public.\""}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The collaboration between Dr. Tregillis and George R. R. Martin highlights how even the most fantastical science fiction ideas can spark rigorous scientific exploration. Their recent work illustrates how the boundaries between reality and imagination can blur, effectively bringing fictional scenarios to life."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"However, Dr. Tregillis emphasized that blending science and physics with fantasy will never be a substitute for the time-honored principles of compelling storytelling."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"\"Good storytelling is about characters: their wants, needs, obstacles, challenges, and how they interact with their world,\" Dr. Tregillis said. \"The fictional virus is really just an excuse to justify the world of Wild Cards, the characters who inhabit it, and the plot lines that spin out from their actions.\""}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"This article was updated with quotes from Ian Tregillis on Jan. 29, 2025."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com "}}]}

From Westeros to Physics: George R. R. Martin’s 'Wild Cards' Alien Virus Explored Through Science